Apparel businesses don't look too merry and bright this holiday season. So far this year, 11 of the 17 major retail bankruptcies were filed by companies that mostly sell apparel, footwear or accessories and the majority of those are dominated by private label products. Though poor inventory management alone is unlikely to drive a retailer to such dire straits, good inventory hygiene is gaining importance in the minds of analysts and investors.
Last week, Moody’s cut its fourth-quarter forecast for department stores, heavily reliant on apparel for years, predicting a 20% dip in operating income instead of the earlier prediction of 15%. "Inventory management is critical to success," reads the note, adding most retailers have maxed out operational efficiency gains and winners have managed to better match inventories and consumer demand.
Moody’s also lowered its outlook for apparel brands in October from positive to stable. Analysts cited a stronger U.S. dollar, which increased cost of goods sold for apparel importers. Tariff pressure, as well, triggered inventory pull-forward before the expected Dec. 15 implementation of List 4B, though the round was canceled last week.
UBS named inventory growth as a top reason it is bearish on apparel, footwear and accessory sales for the 2019 holiday season. UBS noted in September that inventory growth for apparel, footwear and accessories has outpaced sales growth for four quarters running — predicting higher than normal promotions in Q4 and lower gross margins.
"I'm hearing so many companies that brought in inventory a lot sooner than expected, in order to get ahead of what was going to be some tariff increases," Moody’s apparel and footwear analyst Mike Zuccaro told sister publication Supply Chain Dive.
But, tariffs, declining consumer spending on apparel and a cooling global economy may only be exacerbating a flaw lurking beneath the modern apparel industry for years.
The problem is the way apparel is sourced and the priorities of operations teams dictating those purchases, which leads to overbuying, argued John Thorbeck, chairman of Chainge Capital, which specializes in lead-time optimization, at the Sourcing Journal Summit earlier this year. The result is markdowns.
Coresight Research put the value of retail markdowns at $300 billion in 2018 — representing 12% of non-grocery retail sales. Apparel retailers had a 60% full-price sell-through rate, which Coresight chalked up to poor inventory management.
"What other industry starts with a 65-70% initial margin and ends up at one or two? That’s the cost of uncertainty. How has this industry dealt with this for fifty years or longer? It’s finding what that cushion is in sourcing and cheaper and cheaper countries," Thorbeck said.
Demand forecasting, from style to quantity, is growing in importance in modern apparel. Retailers like Kohl’s and brands like Nike tout their ability to decrease lead times leading to a more responsive supply chain and more relevant product. But most brands aren’t prioritizing short lead times over the king of key performance indicators: cost.
Though Thorbeck put the emphasis on lead times and sourcing, there’s not one link of the supply chain that is completely to blame for the problem of chronically-elevated inventory. Best practices in nearly every area can help, said Zuccaro.
True omnichannel operations, which are largely intended to meet the customers where they are and therefore garner the maximum sales, require advanced inventory management skills. In many cases when retailers up their fulfillment speed or omnichannel options, investment, either in technology or more inventory, follows. Even Amazon saw increased expense from staging inventory when it shifted Prime shipping speed from two days to one.
Between design, lead times, order sizes, tariffs, omnichannel fulfillment and baseline inventory management, "there are a lot of different things that can go wrong," said Zaccaro and each company is a little different. Many of these potential areas for error lead to stranded inventory and eventually markdowns. But managing them well can also optimize inventory in an era where most fail to do so — offering a competitive edge.
(Source: Retail Dive https://www.retaildive.com/news/poor-inventory-management-weighs-down-the-apparel-industry/569318/)